The Denver Broncos have the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, with eight total selections and no second-rounder. Fans and media have debated whether the Broncos should trade up or down in the draft, particularly in the first round.
Those who favor trading up will note that the Broncos need to find a quarterback and should particularly make the move if they see one they love. Those who want to trade down will note that the Broncos have a lot of holes to fill and a QB won't necessarily turn things around immediately.
Regardless of where you stand, it's worth asking whether the Broncos should trade up or down. But perhaps we can get an idea about the risk involved with either approach by looking back at the moves the Broncos made up and down the board over the years.
Today, I'm examining the trades the Broncos made during the draft that were about moving up or down the board. I only looked at trades in which the intent was to move up or down, not moves where the primary intent was to acquire a player, nor trades in which the Broncos traded away a current-year pick with a player only to acquire a future pick.
There were two trades involving a player, but one trade was specifically about the Broncos moving up the board, while the other was mostly about another team who wanted to move up the board.
Let's examine the trades in question and see how often things worked out for the Broncos.
2011: Broncos Trade Down With Niners
Trade details: The Broncos sent the 36th overall pick (second round) to the San Francisco 49ers for pick 45 (second round), pic 108 (fourth), and pick 141(fifth).
The Broncos opted to move down a few spots in the second round, after which they drafted safety Rahim Moore with the 45th overall pick. The 108th overall pick was then used on another safety: Quinton Carter.
While Moore is mostly known for his defensive miscue in the 2012 AFC playoffs game against the Baltimore Ravens, he had a decent overall career. Carter had a solid rookie campaign, but injuries cut his career short. As for the other pick the Broncos received, it was dealt in a later trade.
2011: Broncos Trade Up With Packers
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 141 (fifth round) and 186 (sixth) to the Green Bay Packers for 129 (fourth) and 204 (seventh).
The Broncos then made a move up the board, sending a fifth-round pick as part of a trade to move back into the fourth round. With the picks in question, the Broncos drafted two tight ends: Julius Thomas and Virgil Green.
Both players made significant contributions. Thomas was a productive pass catcher, earning Pro Bowl honors in 2013 and 2014, while Green became a quality tight end and special teams player who contributed to a Super Bowl win (SB50).
2012: Broncos Trade Down With Patriots & Bucs
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 25 (first round) to the New England Patriots for 31 (first ) and 126 (fourth) | Denver sent pick 31 (first) and 126 (fourth ) to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 36 (second) and 101st (fourth).
I've combined these trades together because the picks the Broncos acquired in their first move down the board, were then dealt to the Buccaneers in another move down the board.
The Broncos' picks from the Bucs netted two key players in the team's Super Bowl 50 run. Denver used pick 36 on interior defender Derek Wolfe, who started multiple seasons, and the 101st pick on cornerback Omar Bolden, a quality depth and special teams player.
2012: Broncos Trade Up With Browns
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 87 (third round) and 120 (fourth) for 67 (third).
The Broncos jumped 20 spots up the third round in this trade with the Cleveland Browns. The pick Denver acquired was used on running back Ronnie Hillman, who ultimately formed a one-two punch with C.J. Anderson in the Broncos running game.
2013: Broncos Trade Down With Packers
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 125 (fourth round) to the Packers for 146 (fifth) and 173 (sixth).
The Broncos opted to trade out of the fourth round and got two picks in return from the Packers. The picks were used on edge rusher Quanterus Smith and offensive tackle Vinston Painter, but neither player became a significant contributor.
2014: Broncos Trade Up With Niners
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 63 (second round), 171 (fifth), and a 2015 fourth-round pick to the Niners for 56 (second), and 242 (seventh).
The Broncos gave up significant picks to move up eight spots in the second round, though they got a second in return. Denver drafted wide receiver Cody Latimer with pick 56, then used the seventh-rounder on linebacker Corey Nelson. Latimer didn't have the impact the Broncos expected, but they did get solid contributions from Nelson, relative to his draft pedigree.
2014: Broncos Trade Down With Bears
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 131 (fourth) and 246 (seventh) to the Chicago Bears for pick 156 (fifth), and a 2015 fifth-rounder.
After giving up a 2015 fourth to the Niners, the Broncos got a 2015 fifth in this trade with the Bears. The 2014 fifth-round pick Denver acquired was used on linebacker Lamin Barrow, who lasted just one season. The 2015 fifth was used in a trade up the board, which we will now examine.
2015: Broncos Trade Up With Lions
Trade details: The Broncos sent 28 (first round), 143 (fifth), a 2016 fifth-rounder, and offensive lineman Manuel Ramirez to the Detroit Lions for pick 23 (first).
A player was included in this trade in which the Broncos sent three picks to get the 23rd overall pick. Denver selected edge rusher Shane Ray, who showed promise in his first couple of seasons, but injuries sidelined him in 2017 and he never fully recovered.
2016: Broncos Trade Up With Seahawks
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 31 (first) and 94 (third) to the Seattle Seahawks for 26 (first).
Broncos fans know all too well about this trade in which the team moved up to select Paxton Lynch. While a trade-up for a quarterback was understandable, Lynch failed to live up to expectations.
2016: Broncos Trade Down With Titans
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 157 (fifth round) and 253 (seventh) to the Lions for 176 (sixth round), and a 2017 sixth-rounder.
The Broncos entered the 2016 draft with the final pick in the draft, giving them the chance to select Mr. Irrelevant. However, the Broncos dealt the pick, so it would be another year before the Broncos actually selected Mr. Irrelevant (quarterback Chad Kelly).
But as for this trade down the board, in which the Broncos acquired a future sixth-rounder, they used the 176th overall pick on fullback Andy Janovich, who played well in his time with the Broncos. The future sixth was used on running back DeAngelo Henderson.
2018: Broncos Trade Down With Seahawks
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 149 (fifth round) to the Seahawks for 156 (fifth) and 226 (seventh).
The Broncos slid down seven spots in fifth round and gained a seventh in the process. The players they took were tight end Troy Fumagalli and running back David Williams, neither who lasted long with the team.
2018: Broncos Trade Down With Rams
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 160 (fifth round) to the Los Angeles Rams for 183 (sixth) and 217 (sixth).
The Broncos then made another move down the board, sending a fifth to the Rams to acquire two sixth-rounders. Those picks were used on offensive lineman Sam Jones and linebacker Keishawn Bierria, neither of whom impacted.
2019: Broncos Trade Down With Steelers
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 10 (first round) to the Pittsburgh Steelers for 20 (first), 52 (second) and 83 (third).
The Broncos were reportedly close to staying put at 10th overall, until the Steelers upped their offer. In moving down, the Broncos selected tight end Noah Fant with the 20th overall pick and used the third-round pick on center Lloyd Cushenberry III. The second-rounder was involved in another trade
2019: Broncos Trade Up With Bengals
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 52 (second round), 125 (fourth), and 182 (sixth round) to the Cincinnati Bengals for 42 (second).
After taking offensive lineman Dalton Risner with the 41st overall pick, the Broncos were back on the clock after this trade with the Bengals, which included the second-rounder they got from the Steelers in the move down the first round.
Broncos fans will remember that quarterback Drew Lock was the pick. While Lock didn't have the career fans expected, the Broncos did well by getting extra picks in the move down the first round, to allow them to take a chance by moving up in the second.
2021: Broncos Trade Up With Falcons
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 40 (second round) and 114 (fourth) to the Atlanta Falcons for 35 (second) and 219 (sixth).
George Paton's first draft-day trade-up the board saw him move up five spots in the second round to select running back Javonte Williams. Dever acquired a sixth-rounder in the process, which was used on wide receiver Seth Williams.
2021: Broncos Trade Down With Giants
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 71 (third round) to the New York Giants for 76 (third) and 164 (fifth).
Paton then made his first draft day move down the board in this deal with the Giants. The Broncos would use the third-rounder acquired in another trade, while the fifth-round pick was used on safety Jamar Johnson.
2021: Broncos Trade Down with Saints
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 76 (third round) to the New Orleans Saints for 98 (third round) and 105 (third round).
Paton then took the third acquired from the Giants and got two third-rounders in a move down the board with the Saints. This trade turned out pretty well, as the Broncos would use the acquired picks on offensive guard Quinn Meinerz and edge rusher Baron Browning.
2022: Broncos Trade Down With Texans
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 75 (third round) to the Houston Texans for 80 (third) and 162 (fifth).
It was another year in which Paton traded down in the third round. In doing so, he selected tight end Greg Dulcich in the third and wide receiver Montrell Washington in the fifth. Dulcich has missed time the past two seasons with injuries while Washington is no longer with the team.
2022: Broncos Trade Down With Colts
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 96 (third round) to the Indianapolis Colts for 179 (fifth ) and a 2023 third-round pick.
Paton again moved down the board in the third, going all the way down to the fifth but gaining a future third in the process. The fifth-rounder was traded away while the 2023 third was used on linebacker Drew Sanders.
2022: Broncos Trade Up With Packers
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 179 (fifth round) and 234 (seventh round) to the Packers for 171 (fifth).
The fifth-rounder the Broncos got from the Colts was used in a move up the board, with a seventh-rounder included. The Broncos then took offensive lineman Luke Wattenberg, who is expected to compete for the starting center job this year.
2023: Broncos Trade Up With Lions
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 68 (second round) and 139 (fifth) to the Lions for 63 (second) and 183 (sixth).
In Sean Payton's first year with the Broncos, they had no first-round pick and traded up in the second round. The player the Broncos took was wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr., who provided a spark in the return game. The sixth-rounder the Broncos acquired was used on safety JL Skinner.
2023: Broncos Trade Up With Seahawks
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 108 (fourth round) and a 2024 third-rounder to the Seahawks for 83 (third).
The Broncos then made a move back into the third round, giving up a future third in the process. Denver selected cornerback Riley Moss after the move up the board.
2023: Broncos Trade Down With Saints
Trade details: The Broncos sent pick 195 (sixth round) to the Saints for 257 (seventh) and tight end Adam Trautman.
While acquiring Trautman was part of the deal, the trade was mostly about the Saints wanting to move up the board for a player they liked. In moving down, the Broncos selected center Alex Forsyth, who is expected to compete for the starting center job.
Bottom Line
How much a trade worked out depends a lot on what you expected from the pick, but accounting for how much the Broncos gave up to move up or what they got in return to move down. With 2022 and 2023, the jury is still out (Washington being the exception), but improvement should be expected this season.
The moves that definitely worked out for the Broncos were the 2011 trade-up with the Packers (Thomas and Green), the 2012 trades down with the Patriots and Buccaneers (which led to Wolfe and Bolden), and the 2021 trade-down with the Saints (Meinerz and Browning).
The trade-up in 2016 for Lynch was a definite miss, and the 2014 trade-up with the Niners didn't work out as far Latimer goes. Meanwhile, the 2015 trade-up for Ray and the 2019 trade-up for Lock will always be subjects of debate.
As far as trades down the board, there are plenty that didn't result in the Broncos getting a quality player, even as they acquired more picks. Though that doesn't mean the Broncos shouldn't trade down at all, it's important to remember that acquiring more picks doesn't necessarily mean an increased chance to hit.
Of course, a trade up the board isn't different in terms of the chance to hit. But that doesn't mean the Broncos should pass on trading up. If they see a QB they love, they should go get him.
The best way to look at moves up or down the board is to consider factors such as what are your biggest needs, how much you covet a player and how much talent you already have on the roster. In the Broncos' case, it's not complicated.
They need a QB, but on top of that, they need more talent. Therefore, the Broncos should only trade up if they can get a QB they love, but shouldn't move up just for the sake of getting a QB. If the Broncos don't love a QB, it would be better to explore a trade-down.
We'll find out what the Broncos do come April 25 — and whatever they do, we'll find out with time how well any draft day manuevering pays off.
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