Why Broncos' climb back to relevancy must start by nailing long-awaited top pick (2024)

The most recent first-round pick made by the Denver Broncos was named an all-rookie performer during his first season, voted a unanimous first-team All-Pro during his second season and earned an invitation to the Pro Bowl Games for a second time after his third season.

It is hard to expect much more production from a first-round pick in the NFL Draft than what cornerback Pat Surtain II, the team’s pick at No. 9 in 2021, has provided to this point in his young career.

“Man, you know right what you’re getting,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said of Surtain at the end of last season, “and it’s a pleasure to coach him.”

The problem for the Broncos is that Surtain has proved something of an outlier relating to the team’s first-round draft choices. The most recent issue, of course, has been Denver’s lack of those top picks. The Broncos two years ago traded their first-rounders in 2022 and 2023 — plus three other draft picks and three players — to acquire veteran quarterback Russell Wilson, who was released in March after two underwhelming seasons. The three first-round selections for Denver before Surtain — outside linebacker Bradley Chubb (2018), tight end Noah Fant (2019) and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (2020) — were all traded before their rookie contracts expired.

Since 2012, Denver has only signed one of its first-round picks, offensive tackle Garett Bolles, to a second contract — and that came in 2020 after the team had originally declined Bolles’ fifth-year option. Surtain, assuming he’s not traded at some point in the next calendar year in exchange for premium draft capital, is in line to become the second such player, but those two are the only homegrown first-round picks who are even on Denver’s roster. The overall lack of prolonged impact from Denver’s top picks since taking Von Miller No. 2 in 2011 has contributed to a dark period for the franchise that includes seven straight losing seasons.

The Broncos’ nine first-round picks since 2012 have made a combined four Pro Bowls, either while playing for Denver or, in the case of Chubb, while playing with another team after being traded. Elsewhere in the AFC West, the Kansas City Chiefs have 19 such appearances during that same span; the Los Angeles Chargers have 15; and the Raiders have 13. Team building goes well beyond whom a team takes during the first round, but the gap helps explain why Denver is entering 2024 with arguably the thinnest roster in the division.

It all underscores the top priority for the Broncos in the fast-approaching 2024 draft, one that goes beyond a specific position, even one as important as quarterback. They must derive significant impact from their top choice, whether at their current spot at No. 12 or somewhere else after a trade. They must select a player with star potential. They must add a player who can give an opposing coordinator on either side of the ball headaches. They must inject significant talent into a roster in massive need of it.

“There’s going to be a really good player at 12,” Broncos general manager George Paton said last month.

Let’s state clearly that the sooner the Broncos can land a top-level quarterback, the quicker they can embark upon a climb back to relevancy. It continues to be the great conundrum for a team that has used 13 starting quarterbacks since Peyton Manning retired in 2016 and will name a seventh Week 1 starter in nine seasons this fall. If the Broncos can land someone who quickly raises the offense’s floor and ceiling as Justin Herbert did for the Chargers when he arrived in 2020, it will quickly soothe the hurt created by past first-round picks. It will make it easier for Denver to succeed on the margins.

But a swing for a quarterback that doesn’t work would further exacerbate the Broncos’ problem when it comes to adding premium talent in the draft. If the Broncos give up even one future first-rounder in this draft — the price to get into, say, the top five would be steeper — they would reach 2026 having made just one opening-round choice in the previous four years. That’s a tough way to build for a team needing major talent upgrades at nearly every position.

“Our approach is going to be, long-term, to build the roster through the draft,” Broncos owner Greg Penner said at the league meetings in Orlando, Fla., “and then be opportunistic with free agency and trades and strike when we are in a good place to do that.”

The “F them picks” strategy worked for the Los Angeles Rams — no opening-round choices from 2017 through 2023 — who reached two Super Bowls during that span and claimed one championship. But the heart of those teams was a 2014 first-round pick, Aaron Donald, who became one of the best defensive players ever. The Rams also filled in the gaps with post-first-round drafting that yielded players like wide receiver Cooper Kupp (third round in 2017), and their big trade for a franchise quarterback (Matthew Stafford in 2021) worked, unlike Denver’s move for Wilson. The Broncos simply aren’t yet in the “good place” for aggressive deal-making Penner outlined.

The quarterback situation for the Broncos makes them a difficult team to peg. They haven’t added anyone behind career backup Jarrett Stidham to this point in free agency, making it a clear draft priority. But they also hold the No. 12 pick in a draft that features three QB-needy teams at the top (Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots) and other squads near them in the order (Minnesota Vikings at No. 11; Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13) who could also be pursuing a signal caller. The path to acquiring the quarterback the team wants — how many quarterbacks have been labeled with first-round grades? — might ultimately have too many thickets to navigate.

“I think we’re also searching for the ‘it’ factor,” Paton said. “Who can raise the level of his teammates? That’s really hard to find. Sometimes you don’t know it until you have it. That’s what we’re all searching for.”

Not being able to draft a first-round quarterback won’t alone make the upcoming draft a failure for the Broncos, whom oddsmakers are projecting to win five or six games next season. There are other paths to addressing the position for the long term Denver could explore — developing a Day 2 pick at the position; free agency or trade market in 2025; the top of next year’s draft — if the stars don’t align April 25. And make no mistake: The long-term vision is the most important one for the Broncos right now.

“That will organically take place,” Payton said of the team’s quarterback pursuit.

Failure would be not pulling significant impact out of a premium choice the Broncos have waited three years to use. If the Broncos want to start building the sustainable winning foundation they have outlined this offseason, it has to start with another Surtain-like home run in the first round, however that swing might look. Perhaps it’s a quarterback. Perhaps it’s not. But it needs to be a player — be it a tight end like Brock Bowers, an edge rusher like Dallas Turner or an offensive tackle like Olu Fashanu — whom Payton can confidently slot into his game plans and be able to say, “You know right what you’re getting.”

(Photo of George Paton and Sean Payton: AAron Ontiveroz / Getty Images)